From Zunia.  See http://zunia.org/post/population-dynamics-in-a-warmer-world/

Population Dynamics in a Warmer World

The National Committee for Geography of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in collaboration with the Earth System Governance Project organised a one-day colloquium on Population Dynamics in a Warmer World. This report summarizes the presentations at the colloquium that has been structured around four themes and speakers:
1. Insights from population projections 2050 and beyond (Professor Wolfgang Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))
2. Insights from climate change science on potential climate change impacts (Professor Johan Kleman, Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research at Stockholm University)
3. Environmental migration – a contested concept (Madeleen Helmer, Red Cross Climate Center)
4. Historical examples of migration and adaptation (Professor Alf Hornborg, Human Ecology Division at Lund University)

For the full report, visit http://www.earthsystemgovernance.org/sites/default/files/publications/files/ESG-Report_Population-Dynamics-Warmer-World.pdf

Thanks to Jack Alpert for this article. See: http://www.realitysandwich.com/onset_catabolic_collapse

The Onset of Catabolic Collapse

John Michael Greer

I’ve commented more than once on the gap in perception between history as it appears in textbooks and history as it’s lived by people on the spot at the time. That’s a gap worth watching, because the foreshortening of history that comes with living in the middle of it quite often gets in the way of figuring out a useful response to a time of crisis — for example, the one we’re in right now.

This is all the more challenging because the foreshortening of history cuts both ways; it makes small but sudden events look more important than they are, and it also helps hide slow but massive shifts that will play a much greater role in shaping the future. Recent increases in the price of oil, for example, kicked off a flurry of predictions suggesting that hyperinflation and the sudden collapse of industrial society are right around the corner; identical predictions were made the last time oil prices spiked, the time before that, and the time before that, too, so the traditional grain of salt may be worth adding to them this time around. (We’ll most likely get hyperinflation in the US, granted, but my guess is that that will come further down the road.) Look at all these price spikes and notice that the peaks and troughs have both tended gradually upwards, on the other hand, and you may just catch sight of the signal hidden in all that noise — the fact that providing industrial civilization with its most important fuel is loading a greater burden on the world’s economies with every year that passes.

The same gap in perception afflicts most current efforts to make sense of the future looming up ahead of us. Ever since my original paper on catabolic collapse first found its way onto the internet, I’ve fielded questions fairly regularly from people who want to know whether I think some current or imminent crisis will tip industrial society over into catabolic collapse in some unmistakably catastrophic way. It’s a fair question, but it’s based on a fundamental misreading both of the concept of catabolic collapse and of our present place in the long cycles of rise and fall that define the history of civilizations.

To read the full article, click here: http://www.realitysandwich.com/onset_catabolic_collapse

Thanks to Laurie David for this article.  See http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/news/amazon-drought-caused-huge-carbon-emissions/

Amazon Drought Caused Huge Carbon Emissions

By Stuart Grudgings (Reuters) – February 8, 2011

A widespread drought in the Amazon rain forest last year was worse than the “once-in-a-century” dry spell in 2005 and may have a bigger impact on global warming than the United States does in a year, British and Brazilian scientists said on Thursday.

More frequent severe droughts like those in 2005 and 2010 risk turning the world’s largest rain forest from a sponge that absorbs carbon emissions into a source of the gases, accelerating global warming, the report found.

Trees and other vegetation in the world’s forests soak up heat-trapping carbon dioxide as they grow, helping cool the planet, but release it when they die and rot.

“If events like this happen more often, the Amazon rain forest would reach a point where it shifts from being a valuable carbon sink slowing climate change to a major source of greenhouse gases that could speed it up,” said lead author Simon Lewis, an ecologist at the University of Leeds.

The study, published in the journal Science, found that last year’s drought caused rainfall shortages over a 1.16 million square-mile (3 million square km) expanse of the forest, compared with 734,000 square miles (1.9 million square km) in the 2005 drought.

It was also more intense, causing higher tree mortality and having three major epicenters, whereas the 2005 drought was mainly focused in the southwestern Amazon.

As a result, the study predicted the Amazon forest would not absorb its usual 1.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in both 2010 and 2011.

To read the full article, click here: http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/news/amazon-drought-caused-huge-carbon-emissions/

Thanks to Jenny Goldie for this article.  See http://planetark.org/enviro-news/item/61122

Asia-Pacific At Risk From Climate Migration: Report

Date: 08-Feb-11
Country: SINGAPORE
Author: David Fogarty

Governments in the Asia-Pacific region face the risk of unprecedented numbers of people displaced by floods, storms and other impacts of climate change, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report on Monday.

The bank and climate scientists said the region, home to 4 billion people, will be among the regions most affected by the impacts of climate change, leading to major migration both within and between nations, stretching resources.

The draft report, “Migration due to climate change demands attention” also said no international mechanism has been created to manage millions of people on the move.

“Protection and assistance schemes remain inadequate, poorly coordinated, and scattered. National governments and the international community must urgently address this issue in a proactive manner,” it said.

Failure to do so risked costly humanitarian disasters, the report concluded.

To read the full report, please click here: http://planetark.org/enviro-news/item/61122

Thanks to Jenny Goldie for this article.  See http://www.theage.com.au/national/doctors-in-population-push-20110207-1ak63.html

Doctors In Population Push

February 8, 2011 The Age

AUSTRALIAN doctors have joined entrepeneur Dick Smith’s fight against population growth with a new health campaign targeting general practitioners and their patients.

The Doctors for the Environment Australia group has sent a poster titled ”Advancing Australia Fairly!?” to about 24,000 GPs this week to outline the health impacts of the nation’s increasing population.

The poster shows an oversized boot crushing a tree. On the sole of the boot is the statement ”Population growth, more of us, less for all”. The poster asserts that ”population pressure impacts on cost of living, food and water security, traffic congestion, productive farmland, social cohesion and quality of life”.

A spokesman for the group, Dr George Crisp, said the campaign came as Australia’s population growth rate exceeded that of India and Cambodia and was ”harming our quest for liveable communities”.

It also coincides with the federal government seeking feedback on the challenges and opportunities stemming from Australia’s growing population.

Dr Crisp said his group, which has about 500 members, was particularly annoyed that the federal government’s issues paper on a sustainable population strategy for Australia did not include a scientific review of what an ideal population for a healthy Australia would be in the future.

To read the full article, click here: http://www.theage.com.au/national/doctors-in-population-push-20110207-1ak63.html

Thanks to Steve Kurtz for this article.  See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12338901

UN ‘concerned’ by world population growth trends

By Camille Ebden BBC News

The world population growth rate must slow down significantly to avoid reaching unsustainable levels, says a new UN report.

To have a reasonable chance of stabilising world population, fertility must drop to below “replacement level”.

It must then be maintained at that level for an extended period, says the report.

This replacement level is the fertility level at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next.

The world population is already poised to reach 7 billion later this year and this figure potentially could double to 14 billion by 2100 if action is not taken.

“Even countries with intermediate fertility need to reduce it to replacement level or below if they wish to avoid reaching unsustainable population levels.” End Quote Hania Zlotnik Director, UN Population Division

This is of particular concern for the least developed countries worldwide, which are growing at the fastest rate and are already the most vulnerable to famine.

The UN Population Division have produced six projections of potential future population change based on different changes to fertility level and other factors.

In the medium scenario, world population peaks at 9.4 billion in 2070 and then starts to decline.

However for this to happen, fertility needs to decline significantly in most developing countries.

To read the full article, click here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12338901

Thanks to Eric Rimmer begin_of_the_skype_highlighting     end_of_the_skype_highlighting for this article.  See http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/03/somalia-faces-malnutrition-emergency

Somalia faces malnutrition crisis

Severe drought leaves nearly a third of children acutely malnourished in some areas and pushes up food prices

Xan Rice in Galkayo

Thursday 3 February 2011 13.58 GMT

Severe drought in Somalia has left nearly one in three children acutely malnourished in some areas double the normal emergency threshold and caused a sharp rise in food prices.

An estimated 2.4 million people about a third of Somalia’s population require humanitarian aid after the failure of recent rains, according to the UN. This figure is up from 2 million six months ago.

Though fighting continues in many areas of the country, drought has overtaken insecurity as the main reason for people being displaced.

In the most striking sign of the emerging crisis, the exodus from conflict-racked Mogadishu in recent years has reversed, with thousands of people leaving the countryside for the capital in search of food and water over the past two months. With widespread livestock deaths reported, other families are selling their remaining possessions to raise money to travel to refugee camps in Kenya and Ethiopia.

“It’s a very worrying situation, and there may still be worse to come,” Mark Bowden, the UN humanitarian co-ordinator for Somalia, has said during a visit to the country. “The high malnutrition rates among children mean that there will be deaths due to the drought.”

To read the full article, click here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/03/somalia-faces-malnutrition-emergency

From the U.S. Overseas Security Advisory Council newsletter, which links to http://english.aljazeera.net/news/2011/02/20112442413591195.html for this story.  See a related story below.

Global food prices hit record high

Problem is set to worsen after a massive snowstorm in the United States and floods in Australia.

04 Feb 2011 05:31 GMT

World food prices have hit their highest level on record in January, the United Nations has said.

It said on Thursday that its Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index rose for the seventh month in a row to reach 231, topping the peak of 224.1 last seen in June 2008.

It is the highest level the index has reached since records began in 1990.

“The new figures clearly show that the upward pressure on world food prices is not abating. These high prices are likely to persist in the months to come,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, an economist for FAO, which is based in Rome.

Rising food prices have been cited among the driving forces behind the recent popular revolts in north Africa, including the uprising in Egypt and the toppling of Tunisia’s long-time president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

In response, some countries are increasing food imports and have built stockpiles to meet their domestic needs.

To read the full article, click here: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/2011/02/20112442413591195.html

Many thanks to Douglass Carmichael for this article, which you can find at https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B5F-idWfw7TeNThhNmRkNTUtMjgxNy00YzkwLWEyNmYtZjE4MWI1MzdmNjIy&hl=en&authkey=CNaS_okG

You can email your reactions to doug@dougcarmichael.com

Welcome to a new population organization, Sustainable Population Brazil, formed by Paula Simas in Brasilia.  Her website is at http://populacaosustentavel.wordpress.com, where she is posting daily blogs.  If you don’t know Portuguese, you can copy and paste these articles into Google Translate at http://translate.google.com/#auto|en|.

Here’s a Google translation of their February 4 distribution:

U.S. and virtually every American country needs to lower their fertility rate

The ecological footprint of Brazilians is low only because the majority of people live precariously.
According to the UN, countries like the United States, Brazil and Mexico also need to reduce the growth of their populations.
Many believe that discussions about reducing the world population is talk of rich countries. True, the rich countries prefer that poor countries reduce their populations and do not want to change your lifestyle. Only invest in green technologies such as whether global warming was the only one of our environmental problems.
The United States, with a population of about 310 million and total fertility rate above replacement level, are already unsustainable in all respects. The Mississippi River, for instance, turns out to 17.330 meters water per second into the Gulf of Mexico – an area that is already considered one of the largest dead zone on the planet. Here there is no longer enough oxygen to support life. Crustaceans, fish, sharks no longer swim in the waters of the Gulf. Every day, fertilizers, sewage and a ton of other chemicals in industrial activity and for personal use from several states flow into the Mississippi. The United States consumes more than all the world’s poor countries. It would be good news if the U.S. population nearly halve?

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