Thanks to Fred Stanback for this article.  See http://blog.rmi.org/LearningFromJapansNuclearDisaster

Learning from Japan’s Nuclear Disaster

by Amory B. Lovins

Friday, March 18, 2011

As heroic workers and soldiers strive to save stricken Japan from a new horror-radioactive fallout-some truths known for 40 years bear repeating.

An earthquake-and-tsunami zone crowded with 127 million people is an unwise place for 54 reactors. The 1960s design of five Fukushima-I reactors has the smallest safety margin and probably can’t contain 90 percent of meltdowns. The U.S. has six identical and 17 very similar plants.

Every currently operating light-water reactor, if deprived of power and cooling water, can melt down. Fukushima had eight-hour battery reserves, but fuel has melted in three reactors. Most U.S. reactors get in trouble after four hours. Some have had shorter blackouts. Much longer ones could happen.

Overheated fuel risks hydrogen or steam explosions that damage equipment and contaminate the whole site–so clustering many reactors together (to save money) can make failure at one reactor cascade to the rest.

Nuclear power is uniquely unforgiving: as Swedish Nobel physicist Hannes Alfvén said, “No acts of God can be permitted.” Fallible people have created its half-century history of a few calamities, a steady stream of worrying incidents, and many near-misses. America has been lucky so far. Had Three Mile Island’s containment dome not been built double-strength because it was under an airport landing path, it may not have withstood the 1979 accident’s hydrogen explosion. In 2002, Ohio’s Davis-Besse reactor was luckily caught just before its massive pressure-vessel lid rusted through.

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Thanks to Lester Brown for this article.  See: http://www.earth-policy.org/book_bytes/2011/wotech9_ss2

Wind: The Center of the Plan B Economy

For many years, a small handful of countries dominated growth in wind power, but this is changing as the industry goes global, with more than 70 countries now developing wind resources. Between 2000 and 2010, world wind electric generating capacity increased at a frenetic pace from 17,000 megawatts to nearly 200,000 megawatts.

Measured by share of electricity supplied by wind, Denmark is the leading nation at 21 percent. Three north German states now get 40 percent or more of their electricity from wind. For Germany as a whole, the figure is 8 percent—and climbing. And in the state of Iowa, enough wind turbines came online in the last few years to produce up to 20 percent of that state’s electricity.

In terms of sheer volume, the United States leads the world with 35,000 megawatts of wind generating capacity, followed by China and Germany with 26,000 megawatts each. Texas, long the leading U.S. oil-producing state, is now also the nation’s leading generator of electricity from wind. It has 9,700 megawatts of wind generating capacity online, 370 megawatts more under construction, and a huge amount under development. If all of the wind farms projected for 2025 are completed, Texas will have 38,000 megawatts of wind generating capacity—the equivalent of 38 coal-fired power plants. This would satisfy roughly 90 percent of the current residential electricity needs of the state’s 25 million people.
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Many thanks to Roger Martin of Population Matters for this March 10, 2011 talk by Sir David Attenborough to the Royal Society of Arts and Commerce.  The talk was introduced by the Duke of Edinburgh.  Eric Rimmer provided this link for viewing or listening to the talk: http://www.thersa.org/events/audio-and-past-events/2011/rsa-presidents-lecture-2011

PLANET AND POPULATION

Your Royal Highness, President, Ladies and Gentlemen.

May I first, sir, thank you for inviting me to give this, the last lecture in your Presidential series.  And may I also congratulate you, Sir, on your coming 90^th birthday.    This year is a rich one, when to comes to anniversaries.  April 29^th is the fiftieth birthday of an organisation without which our planet would be in much worse condition than it is today.

Fifty years ago, a group of far-sighted people in this country got together to warn the world of an impending disaster.  Among them were a distinguished scientist, Sir Julian Huxley; a bird-loving painter, Peter Scott;  an advertising executive, Guy Mountford;  and a powerful and astonishingly effective civil servant, Max Nicholson.  They were all, in addition to their individual professions, dedicated naturalists, fascinated by the natural world not just in this country but internationally.  And they noticed what few others had done – that all over the world, charismatic animals that were once numerous were beginning to disappear. The Arabian oryx , which once had been widespread all over the peninsula  had now been reduced to a few hundred.   In Spain, there were less than a hundred imperial eagles.   The Californian condor was down to about sixty.  In Hawaii, a goose that had lived in flocks on the lava fields around the great volcanoes were reduced to fifty.  The strange little rhinoceros that lived in the dwindling forests of Java – to about forty.  Wherever you looked there were examples of animals whose populations were falling rapidly.  This planet was in danger of losing a significant number of its inhabitants – both animals and plants.

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Thanks to Al Bartlett for his review of this film.  If you would like to organize a screening in your area, contact Joyce Johnson at joyce@tiroirafilms.net.

Mother: Caring Our Way Out of the Population Dilemma

Recently I attended a premier showing of a new film “Mother; Caring Our Way Out of the Population Dilemma” and I was very moved by the film.  This film documents important aspects of the global problem of overpopulation.  It does not focus on fixing blame for overpopulation: Instead it tries to educate the viewers so that people can find a humane way out of the most difficult problem facing our world today. The film explores many different facets of the population dilemma in the developing world as well as in the developed world.

http://www.motherthefilm.com

Mother starts by looking at the population movement since the 1960s when there was widespread activity on behalf of the global and national goals of slowing population growth.  But the enthusiasm for this most important cause has been reversed and it is now politically incorrect to talk about overpopulation.  However, now, the problem is much more serious than it was in the 1970s because of the massive population growth in the last 40 years and the enormous quantities of natural resources, including fossil fuels, that have been consumed in the intervening 40 years.

One of the strongest assets of the film is Beth Osnes, a child’s rights activist and a mother who is on the drama faculty of the University of Colorado.  Beth comes from a large American family but has resolved in her own life to have a small family.  In the film she travels to Ethiopia and witnesses firsthand the consequences of overpopulation in the developing world.  She examines in detail some aspects of the home life of a teen-age girl in Ethiopia who lives in an overcrowded home with very little opportunity to broaden her education and achieve some measure of economic independence.  Several scenes show people from the Population Media Center working with Ethiopian actors to produce radio soap operas with family planning in the story line, an approach that has proven to be very effective in advancing the rights of women and in reducing fertility rates.

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Thanks to Dave Foreman for this issue of Around the Campfire.

Population or Affluence?

In our last gathering about the campfire, I looked at how Technology plays in raising carrying capacity, thereby raising Population and Affluence, and shooting up Mankind’s Impact on wild things.  As I kindle this campfire, I’d like to weigh in on the never-ending squabble over which is heavier in making Impact: Population or Affluence?  As with the last campfire, this one is taken from my in-press book, The Man Swarm and the Killing of Wildlife. Shameless huckstering, I know, but I want you to read Man Swarm.

THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
Among those who work to cut Impact, there has long been a split between those who think the key is to freeze and then lower Population and those who think we need to cut back on wastefulness and highlife (Affluence) among the better-off.  This is the clash we population-worried conservationists and environmentalists have with our conservation and environmental kith.  In many ways, this cleavage shows the Weltanschauung of those taking either side, and often seems like an “Is so/Is not” kids’ squabble.  Forsooth, it isn’t an either/or, but a both/and, as David Brower liked to say.  We need to freeze and cut both Population and gobble-gobble consumption.  However, in this Around the Campfire I want to show that without lowering population, cutting back on the highlife can’t do the job.

A rather new and deft way to frame Impact is by means of one’s Ecological Footprint.  It has the same narrowness and weakness as carrying capacity in that it weighs only our Impact on Earth’s wherewithal to support Man in the manner to which we’ve become accustomed.  In From Big to Bigger, a report for Progressives for Immigration Reform, Leon Kolankiewicz puts it this way:

The Ecological Footprint is a measure of aggregate human demands, or the human load, imposed on the biosphere, or “ecosphere.” When all is said and done, the human economy, all production and consumption of goods and services, depends entirely on the Earth’s natural capital-on arable soils, forests, croplands, pasturelands, fishing grounds, clean waters and air, the atmosphere, ozone layer, climate, fossil fuels, and minerals-to perform the ecological services and provide the materials and energy “sources” and waste “sinks” that sustain civilization.[2]

So, as an environmental reckoning, the Ecological Footprint is good.  But for weighing how we wound other Earthlings, it falls short.  We need to work out some kind of way to reckon our Wilderness Footprint.

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Thanks to Joe Bish for this link.  See http://www.wral.com/news/national_world/national/flash/9193970/

A century of population change
WRAL.com
This interactive map from the US Census Bureau shows the state-by-state change over a century in population, density and Congressional representation. Population Density: Includes Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia in population density rankings.

You may be interested in subscribing to a weekly round-up of population related news-stories distributed by Joe Bish, Population Outreach Manager at PMC and coordinator of the Population Institute’s Global Population Speak Out.

Titled as the “Population News Digest”, the service distributes between 50 to 75 population related news articles, OpEds and high-quality blog-posts from all over the world that have been published in the last seven days. The digest is organized to help readers find stories pertaining to their interests.

Delivery is on Tuesdays. You can subscribe to the Population News Digest using this form:

An sample issue is pasted below.

Population News Digest, Week Ending 03/08/2011

Thought of the Week: In a statement marking the 100th anniversary of International Women’s Day Tuesday, Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin, Executive Director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) said the international community must promote the rights of women “to unleash the full potential of half the world’s population. “When girls enjoy equal access to education, we come closer to equality. When women and couples can plan their families, and balance work and family life as they desire, we expand equal opportunity, he said. “When a pregnant woman no longer fears losing her job, and maternity no longer continues to be a source of discrimination in employment, we advance equal rights between men and women.”

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=54759

Featured:

Professor helps prepare for 2050′s 9 billion population
R & D Magazine
By Cornell University Population is about people, and Parfait Eloundou-Enyegue, associate professor of development sociology, wants to ensure we don’t lose sight of that while we prepare our planet to house and feed 9 billion of them by 2050. …

Population drop in Mississippi County causing money woes
KAIT
By Keith Boles – bio | email feedback MISSISSIPPI COUNTY, AR (KAIT) – With the population in Mississippi County dropping, the sales tax money is too. The county was notified that the new census figures are now in effect, and the state is not providing …

Multi-National and/or Global

Feeding Growing Global Population Will Require Science & Technology
Benzinga
Feeding a growing population with more and better food is a unique challenge, but collaborative innovation creates sustaining solutions, DuPont Nutrition & Health President Craig F. Binetti said at the 2011 Gulfood Exhibition and Conference. …

UNFPA Chief Calls for Unleashing Full Potential of Half the World’s Population
Inter Press Service (press release)
UNITED NATIONS, Mar 7, 2011 (IPS) – - In a statement marking the 100th anniversary of International Women’s Day Tuesday, Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin, Executive Director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) said the international community must promote the …

Science sides with agriculture as global population booms
Western Farm Press
At the same time, we all know that California growers will play a tremendous role in feeding an ever-increasing world population. While the suggestions on what agriculture needs to do to be more “environmentally friendly” are in abundance, most reports …

Population Overload | Reality Sandwich
By Kate Findley
Newsteaser: By 2050, personal space might be a thing of the past. Things have been getting cozier here on Earth as the population balloons at exponential rates. By 2050, personal space might be a thing of the past. At the same time, …

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Thanks to John Coulter for this article in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.  See http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/8/2627/2011/hessd-8-2627-2011.html

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 8, 2627-2665, 2011
www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/8/2627/2011/
doi:10.5194/hessd-8-2627-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections

J. D. Ward¹, A. D. Werner^2,3, W. P. Nel⁴, and S. Beecham^1
1Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095, Australia
²National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, Flinders University, P.O. Box 2100, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia
³School of the Environment, Flinders University, P.O. Box 2100, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia
⁴Sustainable Concepts, P.O. Box 4297, Cresta, Johannesburg, 2118, South Africa

Abstract. Water resources planning requires long-term projections of the impact of climate change on freshwater resources. In addition to intrinsic uncertainty associated with the natural climate, projections of climate change are subject to the combined uncertainties associated with selection of emissions scenarios, GCM ensembles and downscaling techniques. In particular, unknown future greenhouse gas emissions contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty. We contend that a reduction in uncertainty is possible by refining emissions scenarios. We present a comprehensive review of the growing body of literature that challenges the assumptions underlying the high-growth emissions scenarios (widely used in climate change impact studies), and instead points to a peak and decline in fossil fuel production occurring in the 21st century. We find that the IPCC’s new RCP 4.5 scenario (low-medium emissions), as well as the B1 and A1T (low emissions) marker scenarios from the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios are broadly consistent with the majority of recent fossil fuel production forecasts, whereas the medium to high emissions scenarios generally depend upon unrealistic assumptions of future fossil fuel production. We use a simple case study of projected climate change in 2070 for the Scott Creek catchment in South Australia to demonstrate that even with the current suite of climate models, by limiting projections to the B1 scenario, both the median change and the spread of model results are reduced relative to equivalent projections under an unrealistic high emissions scenario (A1FI).

Discussion Paper (PDF, 1900 KB)
Citation: Ward, J. D., Werner, A. D., Nel, W. P., and Beecham, S.: The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 8, 2627-2665, doi:10.5194/hessd-8-2627-2011, 2011.

Thanks to Joyce Tarnow for this article. See http://readersupportednews.org/off-site-opinion-section/60-60/5184-this-time-were-taking-the-whole-planet-with-us

Posted on March 7, 2011: This Time We Are Taking The Whole Planet With Us.

By Chris Hedges

I have walked through the barren remains of Babylon in Iraq and the ancient Roman city of Antioch, the capital of Roman Syria, which now lies buried in silt deposits. I have visited the marble ruins of Leptis Magna, once one of the most important agricultural centers in the Roman Empire, now isolated in the desolate drifts of sand southeast of Tripoli. I have climbed at dawn up the ancient temples in Tikal, while flocks of brightly colored toucans leapt through the jungle foliage below. I have stood amid the remains of the ancient Egyptian city of Luxor along the Nile, looking at the statue of the great Egyptian pharaoh Ramesses II lying broken on the ground, with Percy Shelley’s poem “Ozymandias” running through my head:

“My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Civilizations rise, decay and die. Time, as the ancient Greeks argued, for individuals and for states is cyclical. As societies become more complex they become inevitably more precarious. They become increasingly vulnerable. And as they begin to break down there is a strange retreat by a terrified and confused population from reality, an inability to acknowledge the self-evident fragility and impending collapse. The elites at the end speak in phrases and jargon that do not correlate to reality. They retreat into isolated compounds, whether at the court at Versailles, the Forbidden City or modern palatial estates. The elites indulge in unchecked hedonism, the accumulation of vaster wealth and extravagant consumption. They are deaf to the suffering of the masses who are repressed with greater and greater ferocity. Resources are more ruthlessly depleted until they are exhausted. And then the hollowed-out edifice collapses. The Roman and Sumerian empires fell this way. The Mayan elites, after clearing their forests and polluting their streams with silt and acids, retreated backward into primitivism.

As food and water shortages expand across the globe, as mounting poverty and misery trigger street protests in the Middle East, Africa and Europe, the elites do what all elites do. They launch more wars, build grander monuments to themselves, plunge their nations deeper into debt, and as it all unravels they take it out on the backs of workers and the poor…

To read the rest of the article, please click here: http://readersupportednews.org/off-site-opinion-section/60-60/5184-this-time-were-taking-the-whole-planet-with-us

Thanks to Mark O’Connor for this article.  One of the graphs below makes very clear the link between the price of oil and the price of food.  See http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/01/29/whats-behind-egypts-problems/

What Lies behind Egypt’s Problems? How do They Affect Others?

Posted on January 29, 2011 by gailtheactuary

We have all been reading about Egypt in the newspapers, and wonder what is behind their problems. Let me offer a few insights.

At least part of Egypt’s problem is the fact that in the past the government has threatened to reduce food subsidies. Now it is planning to hold food subsidies level and raise energy subsidies, but it is not clear that the dollar amount of subsidy will be enough. The government is taking steps to make food and energy affordable for most, but there is worry that the steps being taken will not be enough.

Egypt’s Declining Financial Situation

There is a good reason why one might expect Egypt to start running into problems with energy and food subsidies. Its own financial situation is declining at the same time that the cost of food imports is soaring. If we look at a graph of Egyptian oil imports, exports, and consumption (using a graph from Energy Export Databrowser, which graphs BP Statistical Data), we find that Egypt’s oil use has been rising rapidly, at the same time the amount extracted each year is declining.

To read the full essay, please click here: http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/01/29/whats-behind-egypts-problems/