But you already knew that!  Thanks to Fred Stanback and several others for this OpEd by Thomas Friedman, which you can find at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/08/opinion/08friedman.html?_r=1

Op-Ed Columnist

The Earth Is Full

By Thomas Friedman

Published June 7th, 2011

You really do have to wonder whether a few years from now we’ll look back at the first decade of the 21st century – when food prices spiked, energy prices soared, world population surged, tornados plowed through cities, floods and droughts set records, populations were displaced and governments were threatened by the confluence of it all – and ask ourselves: What were we thinking? How did we not panic when the evidence was so obvious that we’d crossed some growth/climate/natural resource/population redlines all at once?

“The only answer can be denial,” argues Paul Gilding, the veteran Australian environmentalist-entrepreneur, who described this moment in a new book called “The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crisis Will Bring On the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World.” “When you are surrounded by something so big that requires you to change everything about the way you think and see the world, then denial is the natural response. But the longer we wait, the bigger the response required.”

Gilding cites the work of the Global Footprint Network, an alliance of scientists, which calculates how many “planet Earths” we need to sustain our current growth rates. G.F.N. measures how much land and water area we need to produce the resources we consume and absorb our waste, using prevailing technology. On the whole, says G.F.N., we are currently growing at a rate that is using up the Earth’s resources far faster than they can be sustainably replenished, so we are eating into the future. Right now, global growth is using about 1.5 Earths. “Having only one planet makes this a rather significant problem,” says Gilding.

To read the full article, please click here: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/08/opinion/08friedman.html?_r=2

Thanks to the authors for this paper.  See http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_duncan_and_youngquist_encircling_oil.htm

Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production

By Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist

The peak of world oil production, followed by an irreversible decline, will be a watershed in human history. The goal of this paper is to predict the world peak. Production data from 42 countries representing 98 percent of world oil production are used rather than reserve estimates. We believe the former is a more reliable indicator of the future for most oil-producing regions, with the exception, to some extent, of the OPEC nations which, at times, observe production quotas. In addition, we recognize that regional and global economic cycles occasionally change demand for oil, so production figures are not always a current indication of oil-field potentials. However, for the longer term, production is a useful measure of true oil-field potential. A judgmental factor also is applied based on the structure, stratigraphy, thermal maturity of oil basins, and volumes of sediments in potential oil basins yet to be fully explored. Combining these factors with the oil production numerical data, we have arrived at 2007 for the time of world oil production peak. Alternative fossil fuel sources, which might replace conventional oil (defined as oil from wells using only primary and secondary recovery methods) cannot come on stream early enough or in sufficient quantity to significantly affect the peak time. They will merely augment the far end of the world production curve. Our estimates do include recent technological developments in both exploration and production, but these also seem to be a minor factor in establishing the peak. Replacement of oil, to the degree this can be done, by renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydro, or tidal require much time and capital to bring on stream in significant quantity, and only limited world progress has been made in these sources. They likewise do not seem to move the peak significantly. We do recognize, however, given all possible variables, it is likely that our date of 2007 may be wrong. The question is how far wrong? We believe it is reasonably close and on-going studies will narrow whatever error exists. Importantly, the peak of oil production will occur within the lifetimes of most people living today.

To read the full study, please click here: http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_duncan_and_youngquist_encircling_oil.htm

Thanks to Andrew Ferguson for this paper.

“ZERO CARBON BRITAIN 2030″ from the Centre for Alternative Technology.

Chapter 8, Renewables, reviewed by Andrew Ferguson

Abstract. The plan set out by the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT), aiming at a goal of Britain achieving no net emissions of carbon dioxide by 2030, is, unfortunately, not based on reality.  This is mainly due to it relying on a mistaken belief that an electrical system can accommodate an almost unlimited amount of uncontrollable input, and partly due to using land that is needed for growing food and fibres for growing biomass.  Allowing only a plausible amount of uncontrollable input suggests that to be sustainable the population of Britain needs to reduce to about 20 million.

I have always admired the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT) for its efforts to find out more about how humans could live in ways that are less ecologically damaging, and for its magazine Clean Slate, which provides information about those activities.  However, I was much troubled when CAT engaged itself in a project to which it gave the title ZeroCarbonBritain2030 (ZCB2030), which boldly proclaimed the possibility of ensuring that Britain could so change its energy technology that it could achieve no net emissions of carbon dioxide by 2030.  This seemed to me a fatuous hope, and I felt no more inclined to study it than I would a treatise on a perpetual motion machine !  But when I conveyed my thoughts to CAT, they sent me a copy of the 368 page book describing the scheme, “ZeroCarbonBritain2030 (the second report).”  I decided that I should at least take the time to study the chapter on renewables to see where the authors – none specified but fifteen participants listed – thought that the required renewable energy could be obtained, for satisfying Britain’s approximate current 60 million inhabitants.

It did not take long to find out that the major failing of the analysis was the same as that which weakens many similar plans for a future based on renewable energy, including David MacKay’s otherwise excellent book, Sustainable Energy – without the hot air (2008), and to a lesser extent Patrick Moriarty and Damon Honnery’s Rise and Fall of the Carbon Civilisation (2010).  These two books were reviewed in the April 2011 issue of the OPT Journal (http://tinyurl.com/optjournal).  The common fault of such plans is a failure to recognize that uncontrollables can only contribute 30%, at most, to the total amount of electricity supplied via the grid.  I have given the reasons for this in many previous issues of the OPT Journal, but they are germane to this review and I will briefly reiterate them.

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Thanks to Ben Zuckerman for this important article.  See http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110405130347.htm

Science Daily 4-5-11

World’s Reef Fishes Tussling With Human Overpopulation

“Coral reefs provide a range of critical goods and services to humanity — everything from nutrient cycling to food production to coast protection to economic revenues through tourism,” says Camilo Mora at Dalhousie University and lead researcher of the study. “Yet the complex nature and large-scale distribution of coral reefs is challenging scientists to understand if this natural ecosystem will continue working to deliver goods and services given the ongoing loss of biodiversity in coral reefs.”

“Numerous experiments have showed that biodiversity has positive effects on several ecosystem processes, although the number of species required to ensure the functionality of a given process is fairly low, as many species often have similar ecological roles,” says Michel Loreau from McGill University, a co-author of the study. “What remains largely unknown, however, is whether the results of experimental studies reflect what happens in real ecosystems.”

To fill this unknown, 55 researchers, in a two-year study, collected the necessary data to determine whether biodiversity influences the efficiency of reef fish systems to produce biomass, and if so, elucidate the role of humans in such a linkage. The team collected demographic data on human populations as well as environmental and biological data on the identity of species, their abundances and body sizes in almost two thousand coral reef locations worldwide. The data on abundance and body size were used to calculate the cumulative weight of all fishes on each reef (also called standing biomass), which is one of the main services reef fishes provide to humanity through food supply but also a very close proxy for how effectively ecosystems produce biomass.

“The results of the study were stunning,” says co-author Kevin Gaston at Sheffield University. “While experimental studies have elucidated that the biomass production of ecosystems stabilizes after a certain number of species is reached, this field study demonstrated that the production of biomass in reef fish systems did not saturate with the addition of new species.”

To read the full article, please click here: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110405130347.htm

Thanks to Mark O’Conner for this article by Dr Ben Spies Butcher, Lecturer in Economy and Society at Macquarie University in the independent magazine The Conversation, April 26, 2011, which dismisses the myth of an aging ‘crisis’.

Titled “The myth of the ageing ‘crisis’”, Mark points out that it says that despite the constant talking up of a potential ageing crisis, “the evidence of a problem is minimal”.  See http://theconversation.edu.au/articles/the-myth-of-the-ageing-crisis-1113?utm_source=The+Conversation+Daily+updates&utm_campaign=66f056121b-DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email

Financial Measures to Address Ageing, Promote Inequality and Weaken the Budget

So far there have been three Intergenerational Reports by Treasury examining the challenges of an ageing population which have consistently been used to justify new policies to address a potential ageing ‘crisis’.

Yet, the evidence of a problem is minimal, and often the measures proposed increase inequality and weaken the budget.

In last year’s budget, the Labor Government announced changes to the aged pension to gradually increase the age at which people will be eligible from 65 to 67. Similar moves in Europe caused riots. In Australia, it was barely noticed. The government has also proposed increasing compulsory superannuation contribution rates from 9% to 12%.

Together these measures seek to shift the balance of retirement policy from public pensions to private savings.

For policy theorists this presents a number of contradictions.

There is little evidence that population ageing will hurt the budget, while measures to support private savings tend to exaggerate inequality and penalise those that provide care for free – particularly women.

To read the full article, please click here:  http://theconversation.edu.au/articles/the-myth-of-the-ageing-crisis-1113?utm_source=The+Conversation+Daily+updates&utm_campaign=66f056121b-DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email

From Solutions Magazine. See: http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/919

An End to Population Growth: Why Family Planning Is Key to a Sustainable Future

By Robert Engelman, Executive Director at the Worldwatch Institute

In Brief: The widespread assumption that world population, now at 6.9 billion, will inevitably grow to 9 billion by midcentury is wrong. Population could peak before then and at a lower level, ameliorating environmental risks associated with climate change, water scarcity, biodiversity loss, and food and energy insecurity.

The equally widespread belief that an earlier, lower population peak would require coercive “population control” is also incorrect. Population growth rates and average family size worldwide have fallen by roughly half over the past four decades, as modern contraception has become more accessible and popular. The average number of children born to each woman worldwide is not much higher than replacement fertility, an average that would eventually end population growth. Yet more than 40 percent of all pregnancies are unintended, with higher proportions in developed than in developing countries.

As these figures suggest, it might be possible to end and then reverse human population growth through a strategy aimed at elevating women’s status and increasing access to contraceptive services, so that essentially all births result from intended pregnancies. Preliminary calculations based on conservative assumptions suggest that global fertility would immediately move slightly below replacement levels, putting world population on a path toward an early peak followed by gradual decline. The success of such a strategy would have many other benefits, such as reducing disability and deaths among mothers and their children and freeing more women to earn money and participate actively in social affairs.

To read the full article, please click here: http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/919

Thanks to Joe Bish for this article.  See http://www.huffingtonpost.com/diane-maceachern/why-family-planning-is-cr_b_852395.html

Why Family Planning Is Critical to Global Energy Strategy

Diane MacEachern

During the first Earth Day in 1970, environmental activist Stephanie Mills made headlines when she announced she would not reproduce to avoid contributing to climate change and other environmental problems attributed to a growing human population. Forty-one years later, should reducing population again be considered as a way to contain global energy demand?

Japan’s nuclear catastrophe and the explosion in the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico a year ago force the question. Nuclear advocates universally justify the decision to fuel power plants with radioactive uranium as the best way to sate the world’s increasing appetite for energy. Coal-fired utilities and oil companies use a “running to stay in place” argument as well. Despite gains in efficiency, they correctly point out, energy demand is on the rise. Part of the reason is because people in developing countries are justifiably using more kilowatts of electricity and barrels of oil to help bring their standard of living up to that of countries that have abundant energy access 24/7. But another reason is because every year, says the United Nations, our global numbers increase by some 80 million people, the equivalent of ten New York cities. At that rate, world population is projected to spike from the current 6.9 billion people to over 9 billion by 2044.

We don’t have to wait thirty-three years to comprehend the impact increasing population growth will have on energy consumption and the resulting carbon dioxide that contributes to climate change. According to the International Energy Agency, from 2004-2008, world population increased 5%. During the same period, gross energy production increased 10% with a comparable 10% jump in annual CO2 emissions.

This does not bode well for our energy future.

To read the full article, please click here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/diane-maceachern/why-family-planning-is-cr_b_852395.html

Thanks to Paula Simas of Sustainable Population Brazil for this article.  See http://oglobo.globo.com/pais/mat/2011/04/19/nas-aldeias-indios-plantam-maconha-estao-viciados-ate-em-oxi-trabalham-para-trafico-924286406.asp#ixzz1K9FMUA8j

Increased Population Growth Rate in the Northern Region of Brazil endangers the Amazon rainforest.

According to preliminary results of the 2010 Census, the growth rate of population of the Northern Region of Brazil contradicts the downward trend of the remaining regions of the country. Between the twenty year period analyzed by the census of 2000 (1991 – 2000) and the census of 2010, the growth rate in the region jumped from 1.63 to 2.09. Probably due to internal migration, but also because fertility rates of four of the seven states of the region also increased (Rondonia, Amazonas, Amapa and Tocantins). Which means that in these states the number of children each woman has during her lifetime also increased.

As population and cities in the region grow, the need to expand and build a network of basic sanitation, roads, public transport, schools, and hospitals also increases. The sustainable model of the gatherers and subsistence farming becomes insufficient to leverage the region’s economic development. The forest has to make room for crops and pastures. In order to be self-sufficient, the region needs to become industrialized. With industries, large scale food production and urban growth comes the need for energy. This process is already under way in the Amazon Region and the decision to enhance economic development or to reduce human occupation in the region is mainly political.

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I came across this article in the Egyptian Gazette on an Egypt Air flight. See: http://213.158.162.45/~egyptian/index.php?action=news&id=18928&title

Crop Growers Brace for More Violence in Egypt

By Mohssen Arishie – The Egyptian Gazette
Sunday, June 5, 2011 04:22:53 PM

CAIRO – As the nation starts to sweat under a scorching sun, Egyptian farmers are afraid that there may be more brawls like last year’s over the lack of irrigation water.

Soothing statements by the Government about the resumption of cordial relations with other Nile Basin states haven’t persuaded infuriated farmers to stop cursing water officials.

Every summer, crop growers get involved in nasty fights with their neighbours over who should irrigate their land first, saving their crops from dying.

Sometimes, farmers’ crops in hard-hit areas do in fact shrivel up and die. The tragedy can be more disastrous, when some growers ignore the public’s health and use sewage water to irrigate their land.

Many citizens have died as a result of eating contaminated fruit and vegetables. The Government is also suffering, as health officials complain that the medical treatment for people who get sick from eating contaminated agricultural produce is very expensive. Ridiculing the Government’s complaints, a frustrated crop grower insists that a proper irrigation system would be great for the public’s health and the State budget.

Abdel-Aziz Khalaf, a farmer in the Delta Governorate of el-Menoufiya, condemns the Government, represented by the Ministry of Agriculture, for betraying the farmers in summer.

“Although there is a shortage of irrigation water every summer, it does not seem that the agricultural officials are willing to suggest a solution. Everybody is letting down everybody else. The Government does not want to learn from past disasters,” he says.

To read the full article, please click here: http://213.158.162.45/~egyptian/index.php?action=news&id=18928&title

Thanks to Lester Brown for this article.  See www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2011/update97

When The Nile Runs Dry

Earth Policy Release
Plan B Update
June 7, 2011

By Lester R. Brown

A new scramble for Africa is under way. As global food prices rise and exporters reduce shipments of commodities, countries that rely on imported grain are panicking. Affluent countries like Saudi Arabia, South Korea, China and India have descended on fertile plains across the African continent, acquiring huge tracts of land to produce wheat, rice and corn for consumption back home.

Some of these land acquisitions are enormous. South Korea, which imports 70 percent of its grain, has acquired 1.7 million acres in Sudan to grow wheat-an area twice the size of Rhode Island. In Ethiopia, a Saudi firm has leased 25,000 acres to grow rice, with the option of expanding this to 750,000 acres. And India has leased several hundred thousand acres there to grow corn, rice and other crops.

These land grabs shrink the food supply in famine-prone African nations and anger local farmers, who see their governments selling their ancestral lands to foreigners. They also pose a grave threat to Africa’s newest democracy: Egypt.

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