Thanks to Bob Walker and several other people for drawing my attention to the current issue of The Economist, which has a cover story on how the population problem is solving itself. As you’ll see below, the editorial in this edition makes several false statements about population issues. To send a letter to the Economist, please e-mail letters@economist.com. Here’s my letter, followed by the editorial and two articles.
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The Economist [“Falling Fertility”] is to be congratulated for recognizing that lower fertility has helped to spur economic growth in much of the world, but it’s a little too early to be uncorking the champagne for sub-Saharan Africa and much of South Asia. Yes, global fertility rates fell sharply in the latter half of the 20th Century, but fertility rates remain stubbornly high in some of the poorest developing nations, and in some countries–like Kenya–fertility rates are climbing back up. With women bearing nearly seven children on average, Uganda’s population is expected to more than triple over the next 40 years. The same is true of Niger. In Congo, the average fertility rate is six, virtually unchanged from 50 years ago. In Afghanistan, where women also bear an average of six children, the population will nearly double by mid-century.
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Between 1991 and 2003, increased contraceptive use among sexually active teenagers played an important role in driving down teenage pregnancy rates. Since then, according to a new report from Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, contraceptive use by teens has declined while their sexual activity has remained unchanged. This is a worrisome shift — and it has bearing on the coming budget battle in Congress

The report’s authors, Dr. John Santelli, Mark Orr, Laura Lindberg and Daniela Diaz, said they found a decrease of about 10 percent in contraception use that is consistent with recent gains in the teenage birth rate.

For full article, visit:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/opinion/18thu4.html

Birth rates among U.S. teens increased in 2006 and 2007, following large declines from 1991 to 2005, according to a new U.S. government study.

It found that previously improving trends in teens’ and young adults’ sexual and reproductive health have flattened or may be worsening in some cases.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention researchers analyzed national data from 2002-2007. Among their findings…

For full article, visit:
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/hscout/2009/07/16/hscout629129.html

Some blame demography, others the recession. It might have something to with gender roles, or the steady stream of mixed messages about being a teenage mum. Perhaps sexually transmitted infections are not the deterrent they once were. Or maybe everyone is suffering from a touch of “prevention fatigue”.

On one point, however, experts agree: when it comes to teenage births, the United States is backsliding. Between 1991 and 2005 the teenage birth rate declined by 34%, according to the National Centre for Health Statistics. Between 2005 and 2007, the last year for which statistics are available, it crept up 5%.

Teenage births are nothing new and in 1960, pre-Pill, the rate in America was more than double what it is today. It is still well below its early-1990s bubble, but experts are getting worried about the trend line.

For full article, visit:
http://www.economist.com/world

PMC has won third place in the Drucker Awards for Nonprofit Innovation. Here is the Drucker Institute’s press release from http://www.druckerinstitute.com/ShowPage.aspx?Section=WN&PageID=117
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Winners Chosen for the 2009 Drucker Award for Nonprofit Innovation

The Drucker Institute at Claremont Graduate University has announced the winners of the 2009 Peter F. Drucker Award for Nonprofit Innovation.

The Center for Court Innovation, a New York-based nonprofit think tank that helps courts and criminal justice agencies aid victims, reduce crime and improve public trust in the justice system, is the recipient of the $100,000 first-place prize—an award made possible in large part through the generosity of The Coca-Cola Foundation.
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Carefully stepping round another heap of fetid refuse in Sodom and Gomorrah, it is easy to despair of Africa’s future. Accra’s notorious slum is aptly named. Here, about 30,000 families (no one knows for sure how many) crowd into a warren of hastily thrown-together shacks on the fringes of Ghana’s capital: there is no power, sewerage or running water, diarrhoea and other diseases are rife and deadly fires rapidly take hold. It seems to contain all that is wrong with modern Africa—too many people, deep poverty and the failure of inept or corrupt governments to do anything to help. Yet Sodom and Gomorrah also has a more hopeful story to tell.

Africa is undergoing a “demographic transition”. As our briefing shows (see article), African women are now following their sisters in Asia and the rich world by bearing steadily fewer children. Admittedly, Africa is lagging behind Asia by about 20 years, and the continent’s fertility rates are still high, but the trend is clear. In Mozambique in 1950 a woman had, on average, 6.5 children over her lifetime; now she has five…

For full article, visit:
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14303769

Thanks to Bob Walker for this editorial.

I believe a lot of this story is correct, except for the statement, “As people get richer, they have fewer children.” Indeed, I think the Economist has it backwards. There is much evidence that as people have fewer children, they become richer. While there is strong correlation between wealth and low fertility, the issue is what is cause and what is effect. Below is a short paper I wrote making this point.

Population and Economics by Willam Ryerson (Word doc., 42 KB)

To send a letter to the Economist: To share your thoughts and observations about anything you have read in the Economist or on Economist.com, please e-mail letters@economist.com. Unless you request otherwise, any email to this address will be considered for publication online or in the Economist newspaper. Don’t forget to include your mailing address and a daytime telephone number.
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Thanks to Tim Murray for this article.
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What is the biggest danger facing Nigeria? Corruption? Kidnapping? Armed insurgency? Religious extremism? Nigeria’s ticking time bomb might be in its mothers’ wombs….

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation, the world’s eighth most populous country, and is the most heavily populated black nation on Earth. Although Nigerians shout with chest thumping pride about their large population, it is nothing to be proud of and is actually a grave danger to the country.

For full article, visit:
http://234next.com/csp/cms/site

Thanks to SD Shantinath for this article from BBC News. Clearly, education of girls is not the total answer to high fertility rates. Access to family planning information and services are indispensable, as are cultural norms regarding age of marriage and first pregnancy, ideal family size, and rights of women to play a role in determining whether and when to expose themselves to pregnancy.
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Unplanned pregnancies among Nigerian teenagers and young women have risen despite improvements in educational levels, a report found.

In 2003, 16% of pregnancies among girls and women aged 15-24 had been unintended, compared with 10% in 1990.

The study from the New York-based Guttmacher Institute said low use of contraceptives was partially to blame.

For full article, visit:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8102970.stm

Too many teenage girls are getting married in Bangladesh today, say health specialists.

According to the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) State of the World’s Children 2009 report, more than 64 percent of girls marry before they are 18.

But with early marriage comes early pregnancy. One-third of teenage girls aged 15 to 19 are mothers or pregnant in Bangladesh today, with adolescent mothers more likely to suffer birth complications than adult women, the British Medical Journal reports.

For full article, visit:
http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=85516