By: Lester R. Brown

We are witnessing the beginning of one of the great tragedies of history. The United States, in a misguided effort to reduce its oil insecurity by converting grain into fuel for cars, is generating global food insecurity on a scale never seen before.

The world is facing the most severe food price inflation in history as grain and soybean prices climb to all-time highs. Wheat trading on the Chicago Board of Trade on December 17th breached the $10 per bushel level for the first time ever. In mid-January, corn was trading over $5 per bushel, close to its historic high. And on January 11th, soybeans traded at $13.42 per bushel, the highest price ever recorded. All these prices are double those of a year or two ago.

For full article, visit:

http://www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2008/Update69.htm

Two of PMC programs were featured in the January/February 2008 edition of Mother Jones magazine, Gugar Goge and Ashreat Al Amal.

Read the article, “As the World Learns.”

Thanks to Tim Black for the attached chart.

Peak Oil Fields Dates 8-11-07 (Word doc., 945 KB)

Thanks to Steve Kurtz for this article from The Canadian.

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Out in the public arena, people frequently twang on me for being “Mister Gloom’n’doom,” or for “not offering any solutions” to our looming energy crisis. So, for those of you who are tired of wringing your hands, who would like to do something useful, or focus your attention in a purposeful way, here are my suggestions…

For full article, visit:

http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2008/01/12/02127.html

Thanks to Lindsey Grant for this article.

Lindsey is a member of Population Media Center’s Program Advisory Board and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Population and Environment. His books include: The Collapsing Bubble: Growth and Fossil Energy, The Case for Fewer People: The NPG Forum Papers (editor), Too Many People: The Case for Reversing Growth, Juggernaut: Growth on a Finite Planet, How Many Americans?, Elephants in the Volkswagen, and Foresight and National Decisions: the Horseman and the Bureaucrat.

This and other papers of interest can be found at www.npg.org, under publications.

For full article, download:

Lindsey Grant Peak Coal

In case you have not seen Albert Bartlett of the University of Colorado-Boulder give a talk on population, peak oil and the exponential function, please watch this You Tube video on the website of Celsias:
http://www.celsias.com/2007/12/16/the-mathematics-that-contemporary-economics-ignores.

There are a total of seven videos that make up Al’s lecture.

Thanks to Al Bartlett for this paper:

Immigration Thoughts by Al Bartlett (PDF, 247 KB)

This and other papers of interest can be found at www.npg.org, under publications.

Is world oil production peaking? Quite possibly. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show a pronounced loss of momentum in the growth of oil production during the last few years. After climbing from 82.90 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2004 to 84.15 mb/d in 2005, output only increased to 84.80 mb/d in 2006 and then declined to 84.62 mb/d during the first 10 months of 2007.

The combination of world production slowing down or starting to decline while demand continues to rise rapidly is putting strong upward pressure on prices. Over the past two years, oil prices have climbed from $50 to nearly $100 a barrel. If production growth continues to lag behind the increase in demand, how high will prices go?

There are many ways of assessing the oil production prospect. One is to look at the relationship between oil discoveries and production, a technique pioneered by the legendary U.S. geologist M. King Hubbert. Given the nature of oil production, Hubbert theorized that the time lag between the peaking of new discoveries and that of production was predictable. Noting that the discovery of new reserves in the United States peaked around 1930, he predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil output would peak in 1970. He hit it right on the head.

For full article, visit:

http://www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update67.htm

If the people of Niger (Nigeriens) remain uninformed about family planning and keep reproducing at the current rate the country’s population will more than quadruple by 2050, imposing unmanageable demands on the economy, social services and the environment, according to research by Niger’s national statistics agency.

Niger’s population is counted by the Institute for National Statistics (INS), which compiles its own data through national surveys and censuses and by collaborating with UN agencies. It calculates the current rate of population growth is 3.3 percent every year.

If that growth continues, there will be 56 million people living in Niger by 2050, compared to 13.5 million today, the INS says. In 1960, Niger’s population was just 1.7 million.

For full article, visit:

http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=75801

A short three decades ago, it appeared that the “population bomb” would undermine efforts at development in the Third World and that little could be done about it. This book takes the reader back to the first efforts by 23 countries to hammer out novel policy positions and field programs to deal with the threat. These touched on the daily habits and entrenched values of ordinary people, and there was no “textbook” for guidance.

Few public programs had attempted to reduce excessive fertility and provide contraceptive means to whole populations, certainly none on the scale and with the urgency required. The 23 cases of the early family planning efforts tell the story. Their successes were original and so were their failures. These essays, one for each country, recount the experience as experienced by the men and women who actually led the efforts. It provides a unique look inside the programs.

These cases offer valuable guidance to other health-related policy objectives that are now emerging. The rise of new bacterial and viral threats (HIV-AIDS and others) make it clear that new health services and program interventions into human behavior will continue to be vital. Even though the problems differ, the organizational structures and behavior-modification campaigns needed can learn much from the pioneering efforts at reducing fertility.

For the complete book, visit:

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPRH/Resources/GlobalFamilyPlanningRevolution.pdf