Thanks to Peter Goodchild for this article.  See http://www.countercurrents.org/goodchild130311.htm

Chaos, Collapse, and Survival

Peter Goodchild

Systemic collapse, the coming dark age, the coming crash, overshoot, the die-off, the tribulation, the coming anarchy, resource wars — there are many names, and they do not all correspond to exactly the same thing, but there is a widespread belief that something immense is happening.

This event has about 10 elements, each with a somewhat causal relationship to the next. (1) Fossil fuels, (2) metals, and (3) electricity are a tightly-knit group, and no industrial civilization can have one without the others. As those three disappear, (4) food and (5) fresh water become scarce. Matters of infrastructure then follow: (6) transportation and (7) communication — no paved roads, no telephones, no computers. After that, the social structure begins to fail: (8) government, (9) education, and (10) the large-scale division of labor that makes complex technology possible. Excluded from the list are such uncertainties as anthropogenic global warming, and there are matters such as epidemics that may become important but that are nevertheless tangential. The international credit collapse that began in 2007 is vaguely connected to fossil-fuel decline, but mainly in the sense that both can be partly ascribed to the above-mentioned failure of government.

After those 10 elements, there are others, forming a separate layer. These are in some respects more psychological or sociological, and are far less easy to delineate, but we might refer to this mixture as “the four Cs.” The first three are perhaps (1) crime, (2) cults, and (3) craziness — the breakdown of traditional law; the ascendance of dogmas based on superstition, ignorance, cruelty, and intolerance; the overall tendency toward anti-intellectualism; and the inability to distinguish mental health from mental illness. Those three are followed by a final and more general element that is (4) chaos, which results in the pervasive sense that “nothing works any more.”

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Thanks to Ed Barry for this draft paper he wrote.

Rough Draft – 2/28/2011

Global Warming and Climate Change -

Let’s Stop Thinking About CO2 Emissions and Address the Real Problem

By Ed Barry

Abstract:  This paper proposes a novel cap and trade solution to the GWCC problem called “cap-and-capture”; one that is substantially different from proposals currently being debated in the international dialogue.  The most important differentiating feature of this proposal is that global carbon sequestration capacity is emphasized.  Under this proposal strong economic incentives would be put in place to protect and stimulate the long term growth of this important ecosystem service.  At the same time, strong pricing incentives would promote energy conservation and the necessary global transition from fossil fuels to alternative clean-fuel technologies.  The proposed solution would be relatively simple to administer.  As with any cap and trade system, scientific guidance is required to establish proper carbon caps – in this case carbon extraction limits – and once this is done, natural economic market forces would take-over to ‘manage the system.’  Other significant advantages of this unique cap-and-capture approach are discussed.

Questions about this proposal may be directed to E. A. Barry at the Sustainable World Initiative; phone: 541-441-1650,

email: (ebarry@SustainaleWorldInitiative.net), 107 Second Street NE, Washington DC, 20002

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Thanks to Tim Murray for this article by Madeline Weld.  See http://candobetter.net/node/2373

Deconstructing the Dangerous Dogma of Denial:
The Feminist-Environmental Justice Movement and Their Flight From Overpopulation

Population growth, development, and stability: Egypt as an example

Reports on the upheaval spreading like wildfire across the Arab world overlook a crucial factor underlying the collapse of the old order: overpopulation. Given the pivotal role that Cairo has played in unleashing the current rage, it is perhaps ironic that, 16 years ago, it hosted a conference convened precisely to address that issue. In September of 1994, Cairo hosted the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) under the auspices of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) with great fanfare and even greater expectations.

Let’s consider the situation in Egypt from a population perspective. In 1994, Egypt had 60 million people, now it has 85 million-a 42% increase in 16 years. The UNFPA projects 130 million by 2050. Rapid growth is fuelled by the youth of the population: one-third under 14 years of age, 20% between 15 and 29 years old, and only 5% over 65.

That Egypt can’t cope with this growth is reflected in its staggering unemployment rate (83% for those between 15 and 29), its inability to educate its people (the over-15 illiteracy rate is 25% for men and 42% for women), its inability to provide adequately for its people (40% at or below the poverty level) and its inability to feed itself (it imports about half of its staples). The 3% of its surface area consisting of arable land (nearly all around the Nile Valley) is being encroached upon by development. The Nile River that irrigates the fertile land no longer reaches the Mediterranean Sea, thanks to overuse by Egyptians and their southern neighbours. The building of the Aswan Dam-to provide energy for a growing population-has reduced the silting and therefore the fertility of the Nile floodplain.

Egypt’s population growth is destroying its ability to feed itself. In 1960, Egypt had 26 million people and was self-sufficient in almost all basic food commodities. In recent decades, it has depended on revenues from oil exports to import about half of the staple foods it needs. Now, with its oil reserves running dry (if you haven’t yet heard about “peak oil”, google it right after reading this article) and its growing population needing more oil for its own uses, Egypt is about to become an oil importer. But the oil exports paid for food subsidies which many Egyptians depended on, and the threat to discontinue the subsidies due to dropping oil revenues no doubt contributed to the unrest that eventually toppled the government. The fact that these biophysical realities are ignored in most reports about developments in Egypt does not diminish their importance or their consequences.

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Thanks to Dave Gardner for this article: http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/opinion/51483638-82/growth-utah-business-quality.html.csp

Utah Growing Like  Third World Country

By Eric C. Ewert

First published Mar 26 2011 12:10AM
Updated Mar 26, 2011 01:59AM

Earlier this year, the U.S. Census Bureau began to trickle out what will become a deluge of data collected for the 2010 decennial census. Already, politicians, editorial writers and business leaders have begun to sift through the numbers and apply their particular spin to them.

Some of the statistics require no hyperbole: Utah added more than a half a million people between 2000 and 2010, a 23.8 percent population increase that was eclipsed only by Nevada and Arizona. In fact, Utah was the only state to record growth in every one of its 29 counties.

Many Utahns attribute this remarkable expansion to immigration (the majority come not from Mexico, but from California), yet most of Utah’s population growth is home-grown: lots of babies. Utah “enjoys” the nation’s highest fertility rate, which translates into the country’s largest family sizes, greatest number of people per household, youngest population (nearly one third of Utahns are younger than 18), youngest age of first marriage, largest average classroom enrollments, and not surprisingly, the highest rate of household bankruptcy in the United States.

Demographically speaking then, Utah looks more like a Third World country than a member of the First World, where populations have stabilized in recent decades.

To read the full article, please click here: http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/opinion/51483638-82/growth-utah-business-quality.html.csp

Greetings from Paris, where Ed Barry and I are speaking at a meeting of the European Parliamentarians on Population and Development.  Thanks to Joe Bish for this article.  See http://www.planetizen.com/node/48799

Growth in Population, Not Necessarily in Prosperity

5 April 2011 – 11:00am

States are growing in population, but not necessarily in terms of their economies. This post from The Atlantic explores why this presumed relationship isn’t actually occurring.

Richard Florida maps out growth in population by state and economic prosperity by state and finds some striking disconnections.

“State population growth does not necessarily translate into higher incomes, notes Harvard economist Edward Glaeser, who points out that median family incomes were $56,200, $60,800, and $56,600 in fast-growing Georgia, Nevada, and Texas, significantly lower than the $83,000, $81,000, and $66,900 found in slow-growing Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York.

If there is one thing that economists of all persuasions agree on, it’s that it is productivity growth — fueled by invention and innovation, increased skills and human capital — that is the main driver of economic growth and greater prosperity. Higher productivity translates into higher wages and income and improved living standards.”

To read the full story, please click here: The State Story: Growth Without Growth

Source: The Atlantic, April 4, 2011

Thanks to Tim Murray for sending me this paper by Madeline Weld.  See

http://womenmakenews.com/content/story/myth-canadas-underpopulation-lay-it-rest

The Myth of Canada’s Underpopulation: Lay it to rest

by Madeline Weld

Every so often policy wonks or talking heads hyperventilate about Canada’s need for more people. The growth boosters take the crude numbers for Canada’s land surface area (about 9.1 million square kilometers) and divide it by Canada’s population (34 million) and conclude that there’s a desperate shortage of people, a paltry 3.3 per square kilometer. In the summer of 2010, no amount of coverage seemed too much for a proposal by Irvin Studin that Canada could better meet its potential and have more international clout if there were 100 million of us. In January of 2011, Canada’s nationally read paper, the Globe and Mail, printed an editorial by Neil Reynolds called “Go forth, multiply and fill the provinces” which urged Canadians to do exactly that.

Such ecological illiteracy in an era when we are allegedly all becoming more aware about the human impact on the environment is stunning. The best explanation that I can think of for the media promoting such ideas is that the media tend to be owned by those who benefit from growth. Most Canadians do not. Satellite images of the world at night do show that most of Canada is as dark and uninhabited as Antarctica. But a bit of thought would lead to the conclusion that those parts of Canada are “underpopulated” for the same reason that Antarctica is: they are inhospitable to humans. Moving people to Canada’s “empty” spaces would significantly raise their energy consumption and greenhouse gas production – and Canada’s are already among highest in the world.

For the rest of the article, please click here:  http://womenmakenews.com/content/story/myth-canadas-underpopulation-lay-it-rest

Thanks to John Rowley for this posting from People and Planet.  See http://www.peopleandplanet.net/?lid=29742&section=33&topic=27

Rising food prices raise spectre of Malthus

Posted: 16 March 2011

Author: John Bongaarts

As the human family approaches 7 billion and as food prices rise, the spectre of Malthus with his warning of widespread famine has reappeared. Here the distinguished demographer, John Bongaarts, argues that the poor of the world are, indeed, vulnerable unless a greater effort is made to meet women’s needs and slow population growth.

Pessimists have believed that humanity is doomed due to overpopulation and overconsumption ever since economist and scholar Thomas Robert Malthus forecasted this fate over two centuries ago. Conversely, optimists have argued that technological innovation will improve standards of living and that population growth is at most a minor issue.

But, now, rising food costs have once again raised fears that the population is outstripping the planet’s food supplies. Although the recent price spikes are partially the result of short-term factors – droughts, floods, speculative investing, low reserves, and hoarding- food prices are likely to remain high as rising demand runs into supply constraints. While higher food prices will have a negative effect everywhere, they will have a particularly devastating impact on the poor, who already spend a large part of their incomes on sustenance and will be forced to spend more.

For the rest of the article, please click here: http://www.peopleandplanet.net/?lid=29742&section=33&topic=27

Dear Colleague,

I am writing to ask for your help, advice and thoughts regarding coverage of population issues by the media.

It is my impression that the volume of news media coverage of population issues has increased significantly in the last few years. The food and energy crises of 2008 and 2011, political instability in various parts of the world, continuing loss of the biodiversity that makes the planet habitable, and a growing volume of material coming from population activists have helped to raise awareness among journalists that we may have overgrown the capacity of the planet to sustain our numbers and lifestyles.

Despite this progress, there is still a lot of inaccurate and biased coverage of population issues, both by the media and by institutions that favor continued population growth.

A clear example of this problem is how the US Census Bureau and the media presented the results of the 2010 Census – by focusing on percentage growth terms. Experiencing a 9% growth rate in the last decade, the US population situation was characterized by Robert Graves, Census Director, as follows: “The percentage growth this last decade…is thus the second lowest of the past century.”

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Thanks to Dick Grossman for this moving piece.

Grieve Appropriately

© Richard Grossman MD, 2011

This is a difficult time for environmentalists. The carbon dioxide level is rising faster than ever, the human population is still growing, measures of environmental quality are deteriorating-and almost no one seems to care.

Don’t look to politicians for help. We cannot rely on people whose term in office is just a few years to make rational decisions about the world our grandchildren will inherit.

We need to depend on individuals and nonprofit organizations (including some religious organizations) to assure the planet’s future. This responsibility is daunting! It is easy to become depressed.

I have some suggestions of how to deal with this discouraging situation rather than feeling overwhelmed.

First of all, realize that you are not responsible for the whole mess. This is obvious, but easily forgotten. There is only so much that one person can do.

My second recommendation is to find groups of people with similar beliefs and concerns. I am fortunate to have the support of several such groups, including the community where I live, Heartwood.

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Thanks to Lester Brown for this article.  See www.earth-policy.org/book_bytes/2011/wotech11_ss2

SMART PLANNING FOR THE GLOBAL FAMILY
By Lester R. Brown

Earth Policy Release
World on the Edge
Book Byte
April 12, 2011

When it comes to population growth, the United Nations has three primary projections. The medium projection, the one most commonly used, has world population reaching 9.2 billion by 2050. The high one reaches 10.5 billion. The low projection, which assumes that the world will quickly move below replacement-level fertility, has population peaking at 8 billion in 2042 and then declining. If the goal is to eradicate poverty, hunger, and illiteracy, then we have little choice but to strive for the lower projection.

Slowing world population growth means ensuring that all women who want to plan their families have access to family planning information and services. Unfortunately, this is currently not the case for 215 million women, 59 percent of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent. These women and their families represent roughly 1 billion of the earth’s poorest residents, for whom unintended pregnancies and unwanted births are an enormous burden. Former U.S. Agency for International Development (AID) official J. Joseph Speidel notes that “if you ask anthropologists who live and work with poor people at the village level…they often say that women live in fear of their next pregnancy. They just do not want to get pregnant.”

For the rest of the article, please click here: www.earth-policy.org/book_bytes/2011/wotech11_ss2