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Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room – Revisited

October 6, 2010 • Climate Change & Mitigation, Daily Email Recap

Thanks to Tim Black and several others for drawing this report to my attention. You can download it from the Oil Drum website at

It is well worth reading. You may find yourself reacting to the statement on page 6 that says, “It is important to recognize that humanity is not, overall, in a position of overshoot at the moment.” The author explains elsewhere that carrying capacity is defined in this article to include “temporary carrying capacity” and later makes the case that we will be in overshoot once oil availability goes into decline. The article is focused just on oil and does not consider negative effects of climate change or positive effects of recent natural gas discoveries on temporary carrying capacity. The author is up front about the limitations of the methodology.

Current World Population


Net Growth During Your Visit