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Population predictions could be wildly wrong

April 7, 2011 • HIV/AIDS, Daily Email Recap

Thanks to Joe Bish for this article: http://www.tgdaily.com/general-sciences-features/54230-population-predictions-could-be-wildly-wrong

Population predictions could be wildly wrong

Posted on Mon, 02/21/2011 – 08:07 by Kate Taylor

Population predictions are often bandied about as fact – but are actually ‘highly uncertain’, a population scientist has told the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

United Nations figures suggest that the total number of people in the world will climb to nine billion in 2050, peak at nine and a half billion, stabilize temporarily and then decline.

But the Population Council’s John Bongaarts – who’s researched  fertility, population-environment relationships, the demographic impact of AIDS, population aging and population policy options in the developing world – says that these figures are actually highly unreliable.

With respect to fertility, he says, some analysts assume that the low levels of childbearing now prevailing in Southern and Eastern Europe – currently less than two children per woman – will continue and spread to other parts of the world.

But this is far from certain, says, Bongaarts, and if fertility remains higher than the UN projects, the world population could exceed 10 billion in 2100.

To read the full article, please click here: http://www.tgdaily.com/general-sciences-features/54230-population-predictions-could-be-wildly-wrong


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